Ag Market Commentary

Front month corn futures are trading 3 to 4 3/4 cents lower. USDA reported 2.139 MMT of corn sold on the week ending 9/17. That was up 33% wk/wk, 333% yr/yr, and above pre-report expectations. About 800k MT of the week’s total were previously announced. Also in the report, USDA noted a 62,000 MT optional origin corn sale to Argentina and a 30k MT optional origin sale to Ukraine. Total optional origin sales outstanding are 682,200 MT. Total outstanding sales are over half of last year’s total exports, with 811 mbu of unshipped sales through Sept 17. Total commitments are the largest for the first 3 weeks on record (note week 1, ending 9/3, was just 3 days of business) with 889.5 mbu. Milo sales were reported at 194,426 MT, total grains milo commitments are 2.764 MMT – a 5yr high for the first 3 weeks of the MY.

Dec 20 Corn is at $3.64 1/4, down 4 1/4 cents,

Mar 21 Corn is at $3.73, down 4 1/2 cents,

May 21 Corn is at $3.78 1/2, down 4 1/2 cents,

Jul 21 Corn is at $3.82, down 4 1/2 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Midday bean trading has futures a dime to 15 cents weaker. Soymeal sales are $7.50/ton lower. BO futures are down 29 to 34 points in the front months. Palm oil futures in Malaysia are lower for the fourth day in row after hitting 8 month highs. The weekly Export Sales report from USDA showed 3.195 MMT of beans were booked on the week ending 9/17. The trade was looking for 2-3 MMT with 1.609 MMT already announced. The report included an additional 565,100 MT of sales to China that were not part of the previous daily announcements. Total commitments to China are 54.14% of the total through the first 3 weeks of the MY. The report had 28.5k MT of 19/20 meal bookings, and 294.7k MT for 2020/21. Forward meal bookings are even with last year’s pace at 12.109 MMT. For soybean oil, USDA reported 20.4k MT booked for 2020/21 delivery. Current MY BO sales were 4,374 MT, which need shipped before October 1. Accumulated shipments are 1.19 MMT, up 50% yr/yr with 2 weeks of data left.

Nov 20 Soybeans are at $10.00 1/4, down 14 1/4 cents,

Jan 21 Soybeans are at $10.03 3/4, down 15 cents,

Mar 21 Soybeans are at $9.99 1/2, down 14 cents,

May 21 Soybeans are at $9.96 1/2, down 13 3/4 cents,

Oct 20 Soybean Meal is at $334.60, down $7.50

Oct 20 Soybean Oil is at $32.40, down $0.29

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Thursday wheat trading has futures extending losses. SRW futures are down 1 1/4 to 2 1/4 cents so far. HRW futures are down 2 3/4 to 4 cents at midday. MGE wheat is off 1 1/2 to 2 cents so far. USDA’s weekly Export Sales report had wheat sales at 351,244 MT for the week ending 9/17. That was in line with estimates and 24% above the same week last MY. S Korea was the top purchaser on the week with Vietnam and Japan at 2 and 3 respectively. Of the sales, white wheat was the top variety, with 37.3% of the total. MYTD white wheat commitments are 21.6% of the total, compared to 19.9% LY. Russian Ag Ministry reported winter grain planting is 54.5% complete as of 9/22, which is even with last year’s pace. Black Sea dryness is delaying Ukrainian winter wheat planting. APK Inform reported 0% of winter wheat has been planted for 2021/22’s crop, which usually begins in early Sept. Japan’s MOA purchased 86,027 MT of wheat from their international tender, with 58,385 US origin.

Dec 20 CBOT Wheat is at $5.47 3/4, down 1 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 KCBT Wheat is at $4.81, down 3 1/4 cents,

Dec 20 MGEX Wheat is at $5.31 1/4, down 1 3/4 cents,

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month fat cattle futures are trading with 35 to 57 cent gains at midday. Feeder cattle futures are trading with 30 to 65 cent gains. September feeder cattle futures expire at the close this afternoon. The CME Feeder Cattle Index was a $0.28 premium to Sept futures, at $142.28 for September 22. USDA reported light Wednesday cash sales mostly at $105. The week’s range of sales so far is $103 to $105.25. Dressed sales were reported at $164 for Wednesday. USDA reported beef export sales were 18,010 MT on the week ending Sept 17. That was up 26% wk/wk, but down 6% from the same week last year. This morning’s update showed wholesale boxed beef prices further recovering. Choice boxes were quoted @ $217.58, up $1.71 cwt. Select boxes were 59 cents higher to $208.19. In anticipation for USDA’s monthly CoF report, trade expects on feed on Sept 1 to be 11.355 million head. That comes from 3.4% lower marketings and a 5.9% expected bump in placements. USDA estimates the week’s FI cattle slaughter through Wednesday at 361k head. That compares to 360,000 head LW and 350,000 head LY.

Oct 20 Cattle are at $107.725, up $0.575,

Dec 20 Cattle are at $111.700, up $0.500,

Feb 21 Cattle are at $115.175, up $0.375,

Sep 20 Feeder Cattle are at $142.300, up $0.300

Oct 20 Feeder Cattle are at $141.925, up $0.400

Nov 20 Feeder Cattle are at $142.125, up $0.475

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Pre-report positioning has front month lean hog futures down $0.45 to $1.15, save for Oct which is UNCH at midday. The CME Lean Hog Index was $72.89 on 9/22, up another $0.72. USDA’s National Average Morning Base Hog price for Thursday was 63 cents stronger @ $64.98. The average of analyst estimates for the Hogs & Pigs report this afternoon has USDA showing 78.675 million head for the national herd as of Sept 1. Hogs kept for breeding are estimated to be 2.5% lower yr/yr, and market hogs are forecasted 0.6% higher. June-August farrowings are estimated 4.3% lower yr/yr and the pig crop is forecasted to fall back 5%. Pork export sales from the week ending 9/17 were 37,788 MT. That was down 25% wk/wk, but up 17% yr/yr. USDA’s National Pork Carcass Cutout value was 77 cents higher to $89.74. USDA estimates the week’s FI hog slaughter is 1.45 million head through Wednesday. That is up 60,000 head yr/yr.

Oct 20 Hogs are at $69.500, unch,,

Dec 20 Hogs are at $63.300, down $1.050

Feb 21 Hogs are at $68.275, down $0.800

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management



Front month cotton futures are trading 7 to 23 points lower at midday. USDA’s Export Sales data showed 143,291 RBs of cotton was booked on the week ending 9/17. That was split 92.7k MT for 2020/21 and 50.6k MT for 21/22. Accumulated cotton commitments through the first 7 weeks of the MY were 7.72m RBs. That is down 8% yr/yr. Commitments to China are 40% of the total with 3.12m RBs. USDA reported 2,985 bales were sold at spot, almost exclusively from W. TX, at an average price of 59.64 cents/lb. The Cotlook A index was 15 points higher for Sept 23, at 70.85 c/lb. The AWP for cotton is 50.88 cents/lb. The LDP is at 1.12 cents. They will be updated this afternoon by USDA.

Oct 20 Cotton is at 63.76, unch

Dec 20 Cotton is at 65.16, down 9 points

Mar 21 Cotton is at 65.95, down 19 points

May 21 Cotton is at 66.74, down 19 points

--- provided by Brugler Marketing & Management






Market Commentary provided by:

Brugler Marketing & Management LLC
1908 N. 203rd St.Omaha, NE 68022
Phone: 402-697-3623
Fax: 402-289-2353
E-mail: alanb@bruglermktg.com
Web: http://bruglermarketing.com

Did you know Brugler Marketing & Management has more to offer to you than just this free daily commentary?! Producers just like you rely on our custom research and daily guidance on when and how to market their commodities. Click here to learn more about what we have to offer, or call 402-697-3623. Do it today!


Do you want to know what trades Alan Brugler recommends? Subscribe to Ag Market Professional, and become part of the Brugler client group! Not sure? Ask for a FREE SAMPLE and get two FREE GIFTS! Start here

Want this Ag News delivered to your inbox? Get the FREE Brugler Ag Newsletter, delivered 3 times daily.